Mon, 01 Jun 2015
GLOBAL - The global case of avian flu has had a big impact on international markets.
The global trade streams and prices are expected to remain under pressure for the remainder of 2015, according to Rabobank’s latest Poultry Quarterly Q2 report.
The long-term impact may be significant due to several trade bans on breeding stock in importing countries.
Producers in countries with balanced markets are continuing to enjoy healthy margins.
Global approaches to deal with avian flu are more important than ever.
Rabobank expects prices to remain under further pressure in the next months.
“Poultry industry fundamentals are facing meaningful headwinds with stronger than expected feed prices due to a strong US dollar, increased competition from falling pork prices and restrictions on trade,” said Rabobank animal protein analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder.
“Prices for whole chicken, leg quarters and chicken feet are declining further, while breast meat prices remain relatively strong.”
Supply growth discipline is important under such worsening conditions.
This has been proven by countries with healthy market balances in their markets like US, Brazil, South Africa and Japan where the industry is still making good margins.
Rabobank believes that global approaches to deal with avian flu are more important than ever, with strict biosecurity standards and adjusted industry business models to deal with the new market reality.
Governments should follow international guidelines regarding avian flu-based trade restrictions.
Many countries in Asia, including China, who have implemented restrictions on trade on breeding stock might be affected by low supply next year due to expected future shortages in local breeding value chains.
Regional Outlook for Poultry Industry